Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.470139 20.087076 23.157314 27.077318 32.026895 38.179189 4.658869e+01
2025-02-23 14.136278 17.255724 21.264211 26.955942 35.123874 46.945446 6.649101e+01
2025-03-02 12.241223 15.515648 19.977820 26.788430 37.509699 54.982476 8.902706e+01
2025-03-09 11.063069 14.445063 19.276599 27.109480 40.481169 64.825744 1.209457e+02
2025-03-16 9.862604 13.139450 17.975151 26.156770 40.982068 70.396531 1.485736e+02
2025-03-23 9.104973 12.366072 17.332114 26.097736 42.982510 79.730202 1.951180e+02
2025-03-30 8.248641 11.343294 16.153374 24.886230 42.426073 83.205852 2.289075e+02
2025-04-06 7.483385 10.386548 14.968659 23.467295 41.098153 84.311845 2.567072e+02
2025-04-13 6.884577 9.638860 14.049399 22.398692 40.273834 86.464313 2.937093e+02
2025-04-20 7.003437 10.035313 15.083536 25.192935 48.864123 120.582229 6.042755e+02
2025-04-27 6.807753 9.896870 15.168489 26.116548 53.346016 145.942000 1.045689e+03
2025-05-04 6.352100 9.287837 14.347443 25.012137 52.212554 149.484891 1.286690e+03
2025-05-11 6.162298 9.133146 14.374227 25.821153 56.875876 183.304395 2.830168e+03
2025-05-18 5.874624 8.788597 14.013570 25.716061 58.924598 208.414148 6.018275e+03
2025-05-25 5.610007 8.463746 13.656651 25.559264 60.795088 236.049036 1.697806e+04
2025-06-01 5.418920 8.254495 13.502402 25.859306 64.335438 281.536139 2.377280e+05
2025-06-08 5.123578 7.838315 12.900991 24.968650 63.435598 294.434987 1.560307e+10
2025-06-15 4.934779 7.603894 12.645320 24.913431 65.626439 338.885737 NaN
2025-06-22 4.659034 7.194818 12.003205 23.779403 63.357527 338.839229 NaN
2025-06-29 4.383522 6.773972 11.312286 22.449215 60.027103 324.614591 NaN
2025-07-06 4.155456 6.431485 10.764513 21.445984 57.813863 320.772492 NaN
2025-07-13 4.260864 6.713108 11.533278 24.066640 71.685109 563.706522 NaN
2025-07-20 4.206843 6.689608 11.652313 24.931028 78.588516 780.044125 NaN